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COSTS INCURRED BY SUPPLY CHAINS AND DRUG RESISTANCE AS A RESULT OF TREATMENT HETEROGENEITY

Abstract

Stephen Patterson*

The emergence and spread of resistance pose a threat to the efficacy of scarce medications for numerous infectious diseases. To prevent drug resistance, available drugs should be used in a socially beneficial manner, according to numerous studies. When multiple drugs are used to treat a specific disease, this study examines the tradeoff between risk of drug resistance and operational costs. We demonstrate, employing a model of disease transmission and resistance spread, that treatment with multiple drugs improves resistance-related health outcomes at the population level, but that the marginal benefit decreases as the number of drugs used rises. We contrast this benefit with the change in procurement and safety stock holding costs brought about by the supply chain's increased drug variety. We demonstrate that disease prevalence appears to be less important than the duration of a single disease episode and the cost of the drug(s) used when determining the optimal width of drug assortment through a large-scale simulation based on malaria transmission dynamics.

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